New Addition

Opened a commodities account and very nearly made a winning (newbie) trade but due to no funds in the account the trade was rejected. Would have gained 6 points.

Anyways, will start trading in commodities in a month or two. Most probably from June.

The primary reason for heading towards commodities is that the markets are open till 11:30 IST which means a longer trading window hence no need to rush for taking trades.

Second reason is to have a different avenue than the cash/future market.

Have not been trading in the last 3 days as my target for the month was met. Seeing the setup at 3pm IST today, placed a limit order @ 18290 but was not filled even after price touching 18290 twice. This was supposed to be a quick hit-and-run trade. BNF closed at 18347 :-)

Anyways, no more trade this week as tomorrow is expiry and Friday is a trading holiday due to May Day.

Target for May is 300 points.

Luck is with me till it deserts me.

24th Apr 15

Too lethargic to update the charts real time.

Two trades taken. Two rules broken. Two winners. Still 3 hrs and 45 mins left in the market, but I am out now.

Second trade can be labeled as averaging out but was taken based on the lack of major weakness during trade period.

SL for the first was negatively re-modified twice by 20 points each.

Points for the day approx. +86
Points for the week approx. + 209
Points for the month approx. + 250

SL modification is not a good act. Need to be stricter in this.

Did not implement the 2 lot strategy yet.

Luck helps if you help the cause.

P.S.: No more trade for the month. Revised target of 200 (earlier 150) met.

P.P.S:- Equity Curve. Compared with 9th Apr, a bit lower however compared with 10th Apr, much, much better.

23rd Apr 15

With a special occasion at home I was involved there and could not monitor trade real time. Since the occasion was so special I wanted to have a positive day today (was somewhat desperate to have a positive day so all my rules were on hold. SLs were there but they were a bit wide.)

Took three trades. Lost 81 points in the first. Gained 45 in the second and 114 in the third to close the day at 78 points positive.

Week stand at +123 points and Apr at +164 points.

Luck saved me again. I am pushing it too hard with SL in place though.

22nd Apr 15

Change in strategy.

I have been chasing points too much. Yesterday when I lost the first trade, I wanted to recover the lost points in the second trade (I did was plain luck in the random market).

From today it will be just 40 net points per day till I am trading one lot (at least till May end) and that's it.
If I get those 40 net points in one trade then so be it and no more trades for the day.
If I lose the first trade (should not be more than net 55 points), even then the target for the next 2 trades will be 40 net each, giving me 25 net for the day.

Once a week I will push for approx. 80-100 net points, depending on the market conditions.

approx. 66 points for the day with 89 points for Apr.

Lucky to have survived two days in a row. Would not be every day.

21st Apr 15

Broke SL modif. rule twice.

First trade went against me in a ziffy even after giving it additional 30 points SL than my permissible limit and I lost 71 points.

Then placed another trade and again modified the SL by 20 points. This was motivated by yesterday's trade wherein it would have hit the TP of 100 points had I kept the SL above the DH by 20-25 points. Yesterday's 2nd trade which I lost by 35 points would have not hit the SL if I persisted with the trade.

Overall made 64 points today with the week at 23 points.

Could not update the charts real-time not because I was not available but was too shocked by the loss in the first trade which went against me in just 7 mins. I believe it was because I hurried into the trade which was because yesterday I lost getting filled by just 1 tick and it went up straight away.

Anyways, tomorrow will be a new day.

However, one thing though was bothering me today. Do I need to day-trade and be stuck with the screen?

Luck helps in inducing errors.

20th Apr 15

2 trades both losers. Lost 82 points.

A bit upset not because I lost but because of factors which made me lose the trades.

But then they were not in my control like the market is not in my control then why am I upset?

Not a good trait being unhappy over un-controllable factors.

I have been lucky but for how long?

17th Apr 15

Great day.

Not from the perspective of point collection but adherence to rules and systems.

Still 1 hr and 47 mins. for the market to close but since I have exhausted my THREE trades for the day quota, I would not take any more trades today.

Total points for Apr till now are +40.

Total points for this week are +186.

Last week including my positional trade I made -146 points.

So comparably, I did 200% better than last week. Even if I can get 100+ points in a week that will be a healthy sign.

Seems new strategy implementation will have to wait :-)

Luck does not prepare you for the worst, only mental strength does.

A strategy change

My thought process.

As of now I stand at 35+ points, I will take it to 90+ points and then will implement the below strategy.

1. In the first trade of the day, I will trade two lots with SL of 35 points.
2. If I lose, no more trade for the day as this will constitute two losing trades for the day.
3. If I win (with whatever points, at least BE), I will take one more trade with just one lot.
4. Whether I win or lose this one lot trade, there would not be any more trade for the day.
5. As, this will make max. three trades for the day.
6. If I lose two, two lot trades in any week then only one lot trades post that in that week.

Time will tell how good or bad this strategy works for me. As of now looks motivated by greed because of four consecutive winning trades :-p

16th Apr 15

A decent day.

The best part was I adhered to the rules.

Did not get carried away or take revenge trades. Rest the random nature of the markets gave me winners.

If I lose, its because of the randomness of the markets. Though I will follow the system/rules.

If I win, its because of the randomness of the markets. Though I will follow the system/rules.

The more disciplined I am, the luckier I get.

P.S.:- As decided yesterday I should not modify the TP but I did that on the first trade. This has to be avoided till I am trading one lot.

15th Apr 15

Interesting day.

yesterday was a non-trading day. a few things happened.

1. Spoke to one of my school friends and he teaches finance and is also dabbles in trading. He plays positional with NF, CE and PE. He, in a way, admonished me for indulging in day trading and was sharing his strategies. I myself am interested in positional so like his idea however I HAVE THE BELIEF that I can be a successful day trader. So as of now will not be meeting him. I don't want my thoughts to be muddled.

2. Played demo version of Van Tharp's game and was able to meet the equity targets on all 3 playable levels. This got me thinking real hard and I worked out my Risk of Ruin, max SL and probable TP with the account size I have. I CANNOT trade more than 1 lot of BNF for the next 3 months at least. 

Analysis of my day-trades gave me an insight as to where I stand today.

As far as win % are concerned I am doing ok but the biggest challenge is the Avg. points lost on losing trades. Much bigger than Avg. points gained on winning trades, infact 1.1 times more. I need to bring the ratio in the favor of winning trades.

Even if the Avg. points on winning trades remain same at 47, I need to bring down the Avg. points on losing trades to max. 32 (or less). To achieve this I need to do the following:-

a. Need to control my avg. SL to 40 or less in the next 2 months.

b. Need to adhere to the SL.

c. If possible increase the avg. points won to 60+.

It helped me to plan my trades today.

In the first trade I was trying to extract more points from the market but considering I am trading with just 1 lot I should restrict this for the time being and stick to fixed TP. Modificatin of SL in my favor is allowed for capital preservation.

In the second trade I was not careful enough while placing the bracket order. I need to be more vigilant henceforward.

I BELIEVE I can, hence I WILL.

13 Apr 15

tsk tsk.

When will I learn???

From 150+ points in the morning to just 15+ points now.

Again broke rules. Greed,Revenge Trades and Over-trading killed me today.

Only positive was that I stuck to the initial SL and did not modify it to accommodate losing trade.

Post adjustment of expenses, points for Apr are -129.

Luck is a function of diligence, discipline and determination.

15th Apr 15 - 02

Ok. Let me analyse and try to plug in the gaps.

1. Took whimsical trades - Not really whimsical but it was more of a greedy trade. Was observing that the BNF may rise and within 10 secs. it did go up some 40 points, so in the greed of missing out on the rally got in the trade with 2 lots but must have done some wrong 'cuz when it fell by 30 odd points another 2 lots got purchased. And this is where I adjusted my stop so they were the biggest losers.

Markets may rally up or down very fast but if they are not at price point levels, no trade at all. Moreso, if their is a rapid sharp movement.

2. Took revenge trades - Took a trade after the initial loss and it went up immediately, and I could have got 90 odd points but as I was busy so could not monitor it and sold it with just 40 points. Should have stopped here as I was able to erase around 35% of my deficit but went in again at a higher price and it nosedived.

Markets will give me more opportunity. No trade within 30 mins of one losing trade.

3. Took too many trades - I should have stopped after the 2nd trade but I kept on pushing my LUCK.

Markets will give me more opportunity. No trade within 30 mins of one losing trade.

4. Kept SL more than risk appetite - Should not have kept more than 50 points as SL on the 2 lots but kept it at 70 points even when I went for 4 lots.

No deviations to this. If SL has to be increased then lower the position size.

5. Modified SL on the negative side - Did that just once for 32 points but did and was not correct.

No deviations on this too.

6. Hoped - Perpetual newbie trait.

If the SL and position size is correct, no need to hope.

7. Was talking to the market  - Again a newbie trait.

If the SL and position size is correct, no need to talk to anyone, least of all the markets.

8. Had bigger position size than I could have afforded - Revenge trades are like this only when you want to get back from the market what you lost. Newbie trait.

No deviations on this. Position size should correspond to the risk appetite.

9. Did not follow the levels - What did I learn over the last weeks if I could not implement them?

Random trades without following the levels will not take me anywhere. Discipline required.

10. Feared - Lost so much that it came out naturally. Again a newbie trait.

If the SL and position size is correct, no need to fear.

Takeaways:-

1. No Hoping.

2. No Fearing.

3. No Greed.

4. Strict adherence to SL.

5. Strict adherence to position size based on max. risk.

6. Adherence to price points/systems only.

7. No. of trades only on the basis of winning streak. 2 loss in a day, consecutive or not, no more trade.

The more disciplined I will become, the more lucky I will become.

10th Apr 15 - 01

wow.

Everything that I could have done wrong was done by me right from the start.

1. Took whimsical trades.
2. Took revenge trades.
3. Took too many trades.
4. Kept SL more than risk appetite.
5. Modified SL on the negative side.
6. Hoped.
7. Was talking to market.
8. Had bigger position size than I could have afforded.
9. Did not follow the levels.
10. Feared

Additionally was very occupied to monitor the trades still took them.

Lost 451 points today so now stand at -118 points for Apr.

Only positive was I did not keep on changing the SL to accommodate the trades, did that just once on one trade.

No more trades for the day. No charts 'cuz was not available real-time to update them.

All these losses after taking a decision in the morning that today being a Friday will not take any trades.

I am here (for some time at least) and markets are definitely here so no issues. Will pull up my socks and belts and clothes to start a new day on Monday.

Luck favors who are disciplined and I was not today so luck deserted me. :-)

P.S. - I was so much psychologically charged up due to the losses that I hated to be buzy with the other work and people which was and were as or may be more important. In a nutshell, I lost it completely today not only financially but also psychologically.

DISCLAIMER

Though this is for my own consumption only but I still wanted to have the disclaimer lest someone finds this blog and starts using the charts and methods et al.

This blog is my personal trading journal and it is for general information purpose only. The information contained in the blog should not be construed as research report or financial advice. Whatever I post here is only for my education and knowledge and its future use.  I do not make any buy /sell /hold recommendation or give any price target.

I am not a research analyst registered under the SEBI( Research Analysts) regulation 2014 and not authorized to give any financial advice. Information contained in this blog should not be used, relied upon or treated as a substitute for specific or professional advice.  Charts published in this blog are only illustrative examples of the concepts discussed here.

Any reliance you place on the information contained in this blog is therefore strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any damage or loss, direct or indirect incurred using the information contained in this blog.

9th Apr 15

another day.

Did TWO first.

Took a short trade for the first time. Did not end positive but that's ok since I followed the rules. As it was my first short trade I was a bit nervous and the best part was the price kept on swinging between giving me a marginal profit and marginal loss for a long time, till it ultimately hit my SL.

Was not present between 2pm to 3pm and missed the long move however the markets are here to stay and will give me more opportunities if I am disciplined enough.

Today was also the first time I took a trade in BankNifty and again was a bit nervous. I was observing it since morning and it has already moved some 250 points during my observation. As wanted to take a trade based on Gann Sq of 9, so took this trade. The entry was again wrong though.

I put a Limit order with higher price and so got filled at market. I need to stop doing this. I will be sticking a post-it on my computer screen which will keep me reminding of this foolish mistake. It did not backfire and gave me 87 points in 36 mins which was huge and I started shaking. I expected it to do something but this much was not expected.

Again a move of about 200 was missed due to non-availability but then I already made a net of 60 odd points today so that's fine.

I also closed my open position since Mar'25 as I did not wanted to have a move ruin my gains. Though if I persisted I could have easily gained the target of 200+ points. Still 171 points is also not bad.

Total NET points for the month:- +332.
Mar 25th Trade - +171
Apr 6th - +45 (1 trade)
Apr 7th - +29 (3 trades)
Apr 8th - +23 (2 trades)
Apr 9th - +64 ( 2 trades)

Looks lot better than the prev. so many months and more so against Mar this is superb.

Mar. is a Higher Low. Apr. is a Higher High. So its an uptrend. :-)

I have to learn doing short trades 'coz I feel very shaky as soon have to enter a short trade. But then half of the points will be made shorting and I need to be more confident.

I am sure I will able to handle this business more proficiently if I can follow the rules.

Max. that I will risk on a trade will be 5% of my equity so that will be my guide for the position size. With bracket orders it is pretty easy to get carried away as just 4k is needed for One lot of NF and just 9k is needed for One lot of BNF.

Best of luck to me.

Diligence is the mother of good luck - Benjamin Franklin

8th Apr 15

Was not able to update yesterday.

Made entry mistakes which definitely could have been avoided.

Got saved but not a good day from rule following  perspective.

Best of luck to me.

7th Apr 15

Another day.

Not copybook as yesterday.

But made two mistakes first when not updating data of around 20 minutes which affected the decision making.

Second while putting sell order instead of SL order. tsk tsk.

Day ended positive.

A few takeaways.
1. I did not change the SL of the first trade even when the M was falling rapidly.
2. I did not change the SL of the third trade even when the M came down heavily.
3. TP was taken at predefined price even when the M was rising rapidly.
4. I have to be doubly sure before hitting the trade button. Trade two close was a result of a foolish mistake.

Best of luck to me. Journeys have a long route with many learning.

6th Apr 15

Day began at 10am.

NF had opened Gap up at 8662 against the closing of 8635 and within the first 5 mins came down to 8633 and by the 10 had touched 8609 twice so I assumed it was the low of the day and hence the support.

Watched the markets for next half an hour and put a limit order at 8611. Due to wrong entry levels, trade got rejected and the NF went upto 8634. I was satisfied that I have been able to understand the market structure a bit.

I again put in a limit order of 8611 and it was not filled so I cancelled the order.

I marked the trade on the chart so lets upload the chart.

What was satisfying was not that the trade gave by 49 (net 44) points but that I was able to understand the market structure and was absolutely aware how much I will lose before I got into the trade.

I did not have the stress like I used to have earlier. Not that I did not have at all (that stage is still far fetched) but it was much lesser. I was excited though to find out the outcome of my trading decision. What would be the random result of the trade was what I was concerned about.

It was a copybook Price Action Trade but it is absolutely impossible to predict that same result will take place the next time.


In hindsight I missed out on at least 30 more point but then as long as I ended on the positive side, I am better off.

My Takeaways

I did NOT re-adjust my SL to give market more room to come in my favor.

I did not panic when it came down to 8607/08 around 12:10.

I did not take the profits too soon at the first R of 8641.

I was enjoying the ups and downs of the trade.

My earlier trade is now at 75+ points profit. Still 125 points shy of 200 points. Lets see how the market pans out.

Best of luck to me. One winning trade does not prove anything. Any boasting will lead to roasting. 

Mind Over Matter/Market

Trading is as easy as you make it and as difficult as you make it.

Why?

Will come to that later.

Markets were closed on 2nd and 3rd. So I took the opportunity to learn more about Price Action Trading in a way an extension of NN. I delved a bit deeper into Lance Beggs and his thought process. Was able to get to defining the market structure.

Later in the night yesterday watched, Mark Douglas's interview

OMG. What an eye-opener. Not that was not aware of what he said but never gave it a deep thought.

I suggest that anyone who is trading, at least in the beginning, should watch this video at least once every week.

So why is trading as easy as you make it and as difficult as you make it?

Easy.

Like most of the stuff in the world, it is inside us. We can get a system, method, process outside but to churn and turn that into a workable action is inside us. Psychology plays a major role in every success and failure. Skills matter but psychology has a much bigger role to play than we can even imagine.

One major learning from the video, Get into the trade accepting the fact it will be a loser and accordingly decide beforehand how-much.

Its a random event that will either kill it or propel it so why even stress ourselves when it gets killed. Accepting beforehand that it will be killed will help us to be in the frame of mind where we will carry little less stress and once this becomes a habit; trading will be a stress-free activity like say brushing our teeth.

Will discuss today's trade in next post.

Best of luck to me. I am losing so why bother. IF I win so why bother.

Naked Trading & Dreams

haha.

How funny will it be to actually do it sipping a juice on the Hawaiian beach.

Till then lets do it here and now.

I have not been a very strong follower of any oscillator, indicator anyways 'cuz they themselves have so many variations, overbought, oversold, deviation, and what not. Confuses me a lot.

So why not trade with just the candles (blue, black, white, red, purple, transparent, batman, pitcher, hammer, dagger, stars, and all others) and good old Support and Resistances.

This is where NN Trading is helpful.

Watching the youtube vid of Al Brooks and stitching dreams of becoming successful in a slow and steady pace.

Three years will be a good time where I can go upto 16 lots of NF (400 units).

The more I see the charts the more I am convinced that trading is easy if we can play it decently well. Its a different story when we are actually in the markets though. Nonetheless, if I am able to train my eyes and brain to identify just 20 point moves I can end up getting 15 net points (post brokerage and other costs). Twice a day nets 30 points.

If I am able to do it even 14 times a month, I will have 420 points in the kitty. Good enough to make a living.

I know, I know I have not factored in the failures. Well in a 22 day trading month if I fail 8 times, I give back 20 net points (15 points for failure and 5 points for cost of trading) each thereby losing 160 points.

I will still have a net of 260 points. Not bad. Isn't it.

We should always remember, it can go against us in a flash wiping all our capital even with all our rules and money management.

Don't plan to compound till you achieve consistency for at least an year.

Best of luck to me. I will achieve my dreams with consistency and discipline.

Trend Trading System

hmmm

Back-tested the trend trading system on NF Mar and it gave +1039 points however could not catch the move from 8475 to 8598 (123 points) and again from 8530 to 8636 (106 points till now).

It is true that all the moves can not be caught however what can be done to not miss such moves?

Do I follow the rules of the system or put in some discretion in the trading?

Since markets were in the up-move, could have avoided the short trades and hence would have been in a situation to catch the up-move. But then this would have been discretion and will yield different results and will be uncontrollable.

Will again back-test Nifty instead of NF and also BankNifty and BNF.

As far as day trading is concerned, paper traded as per Gann Square of Nine method and got avg. 30.5 each for 2 lots. SL got hit @ 8575 and then when it crossed 8600, went 36 points further. But I am satisfied as I followed the rule.

Best is yet to come but already on the path.

1st Apr 15 - 01

@ 15:01. Did not get time since yesterday to update the live status.

NF has jumped 93 points today erasing my deficit and moving towards my TP. Still a long way to go.

Observed more than 380 points movement in the BNF.

Working on a trend trading strategy on 5m. Backtesting for Mar. Till 11th Mar its showing +651. Too good to be true in live conditions. Even if it gives 300 points a month it is more than enough.

Best of luck to me. NF up 100+